Start with last month’s actuals, then project the next three months using your core levers: traffic, conversion, and average sale. Use conservative numbers first, then create a stretch scenario you’ll attempt through focused experiments. If you sell services, base projection on booked capacity and realistic win rates. Keep it quick, consistent, and explainable to a teammate in one conversation. Ten minutes per week beats hours of perfecting a model that no one reads or trusts.
Instead of precise guesses, assign ranges to major expenses, like materials at 28 to 32 percent of revenue, or utilities within a narrow band across seasons. Ranges reduce the illusion of accuracy and force honest conversations about risk. Review them monthly, and adjust when facts change. Many owners find that ranges prevent overconfidence during good months and panic during slow ones, creating steadier decision-making that honors reality while protecting ambition and momentum throughout the year.
Write your break-even revenue and cash runway in bold, human words: “We need $42,000 in monthly revenue to cover costs,” and “We have 3.5 months of cash at current burn.” Keep these statements visible for every meeting. When people understand the stakes without jargon, they propose practical ideas faster. Plain language transforms financials into shared understanding, and shared understanding fuels better timing, smarter experiments, and the calm confidence to hold the line when distractions inevitably appear.
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